Boundary Adjustment Balances For 10-Year Projected Enrollment

Client: Salem-Keizer Public Schools

Location: Salem, Oregon

After the passage of a $619.7 million bond in May 2018, Salem-Keizer Public Schools (SKPS) began planning for construction to increase capacity and accommodate a growing student body.  In order to balance 10-year projected enrollment and plan for the future, a boundary review of 59 individual schools within a six-high school feeder system was necessary.

FLO completed three phases of enrollment and facilities planning work with SKPS, including a comprehensive boundary analysis and adjustment process. Pre-boundary adjustment work included validating SKPS’ long-range facilities plan and post-bond 2200 capacity model for six high schools using existing elementary school attendance areas and Portland State University Population Research Center’s 10-year attendance-based enrollment projections.

Additionally, FLO developed 5- and 10-year residence-based enrollment forecasts to support boundary scenario modeling during Boundary Review Task Force meetings. The Task Force is a coalition of parents, principals, and community members charged with providing boundary change recommendations to the Superintendent. New boundaries were presented to the SKPS Board of Directors and approved in January 2019.

“The level of responsiveness and attentiveness you give to your clients is exceptional. We will always look to you to help us. I wouldn’t think of doing any further work without FLO.” —Michael D. Wolfe, Chief Operations Officer

To provide SKPS important decision-making information in advance of and during the boundary review process, FLO developed key spatial information resources by integrating land use analysis and enrollment forecasts into our customized GIS-based visualization and reporting software platform. Other critical decision-making information such as walk zones, detailed roads, student residence locations, demographics, and program information were also incorporated. Utilizing this software platform, FLO supported SKPS’s Executive Boundary Oversight Team (EBOT) in first developing a Springboard Proposal to serve as a starting point for the Boundary Review Task Force. Deploying a visualization and reporting tool helped the EBOT and the Task Force understand socio-economic and demographic impacts and provided them information on future projected enrollment as they worked through various boundary scenarios. These resources helped SKPS and the Task Force review modifications through the lens of the SKPS’s core values, guiding principles, and policies related to boundary revisions.

Additional boundary review services for SKPS included:

• Student enrollment forecasting
• Integration of forecasting into 5- and 10-year scenario modeling (as proposed attendance area changes, their 5- and 10-year attendance forecasts change as well)
• School capacity analysis, including the effect of special programs
• Assessment and special programs placement analysis (e.g., location assessment of special education programs)
• Tracking sending/receiving schools and participating students for English Language Learner programs
• Tracking residence vs. building attendance
• Applying the SKPS’s equity lens, and associated attributes, to scenario modeling